ارائۀ مدل تحلیلی ارزیابی راهبرد‏ها با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهانه در شرکت ملی نفت ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آینده پژوهی، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی جهاد دانشگاهی

2 عضو هیات علمی پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی جهاد دانشگاهی

3 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

در حال حاضر اغلب سازمان‌های بزرگ دارای سند برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی هستند و از آن پیروی می‎کنند. بررسی و بازنگری راهبردهای سازمان به‌صورت دوره‌ای و به‌ویژه ارزیابی پابرجایی آنها با توجه به موقعیت و عدم قطعیت‌های آتی از الزامات انکارناپذیر سازمان‌های امروزی به‌ویژه با توجه به پویایی و تغییرات محیطی است. با توجه به اینکه مدل‌های مرسوم ارزیابی راهبرد بیشتر بر حوزۀ ارزیابی هنگام اجرا یا پس از اجرا تمرکز دارند، تحقیق حاضر پس از بررسی و مطالعۀ روش‌های موجود ارزیابی راهبرد به‌ویژه در حوزۀ پیش از اجرا نسبت به ارائۀ نوعی مدل تحلیلی، عملیاتی و کمی، برای ارزیابی راهبردهای سازمان در بستر آینده‏پژوهی اقدام کرده است. به‌منظور اطمینان از قابلیت اجرای مدل در وضعیت واقعی، راهبردهای شرکت ملی نفت ایران به‎کمک مدل پیشنهادی ارزیابی شد و نتایج آن بیان‎کنندۀ تناسب راهبرد‏های یادشده در پاسخ به عدم قطعیت‏های آتی صنعت نفت است

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

An analytical strategy assessment model based on futures study approach in National Iranian Oil Company

نویسنده [English]

  • Farzin Minoo 1
1
2
3
چکیده [English]

Nowadays most of the large scale organizations have developed Strategies as a formal and critical document. Periodic assessment of strategy robustness and effeteness against the future uncertainties specifically in a dynamic and turbulent business environment is inevitable. Most of the traditional models mainly focused on the strategy assessment during or after strategy implementation. This paper proposes a practical, analytical and quantitative ex-ante strategy assessment model to evaluate the effectiveness of the formulated strategies in the context of futures study. In order to show the practically and usefulness of the proposed model an empirical study of the NIOC strategy is demonstrated. The results show the effectiveness of the NIOC strategies against future uncertainties.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • resilience
  • Robustness
  • Strategy assessment
  • uncertainty
  • Futures Study
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